Aston Vanilla: Title chasers?

A football blog, for once. Thanks to Aston Villa beating Portsmouth 1-0 in their Premier League yesterday, (of which, I predicted & expected) - they now move up into 3rd in the Premier League table:

Barclays Premier League Table 27 January 2009

		P	GD	PTS
1	Man Utd	22	29	50
2	Liverpool	22	22	47
3	Aston Villa	23	14	47
4	Chelsea	22	29	45
5	Arsenal	22	13	41
6	Everton	22	4	36
7	Wigan	22	2	31
8	West Ham	22	-2	29
9	Hull	22	-13	27
10	Fulham	21	1	26
11	Sunderland	23	-8	26
12	Man City	21	9	25
13	Tottenham	23	-4	24
14	Portsmouth	22	-13	24
15	Bolton	22	-8	23
16	Newcastle	22	-9	23
17	Blackburn	21	-11	21
18	Middlesbrough	22	-15	21
19	Stoke	23	-18	21
20	West Brom	23	-22	21

Arsenal are due to play Everton midweek, so its fairly possible that with a draw Aston Villa could be looking for a lucrative UEFA Champions League spot. Coming up in February are some winnable games for 'Vanilla', until they meet Chelsea on the back end of the month.

Unthinkable, maybe, but if Arsenal fail to beat Everton and Aston Villa begin to keep winning, could a win over Chelsea transform the title race into an unexpected 3-legged horse race between Manchester United, Villa and Liverpool?

It is perhaps no suprise for some that Manchester United lead the Premier League table but Liverpool are in touching distance despite a recent slip in form. Villa could yet gatecrash the party and they face a dauting task that will ultimately decide their Premier League fate this season with Liverpool and United back-to-back away games in March/April. It's a little too early to specuilate maybe which is why no journalists seem to be giving any ideas that Villa could make a surge for the title.

I would not be too suprised if they did - I personally felt they would finish 5th this season ahead of Everton, despite Manchester City's riches (and look where they are!...). What is more probable though is that Villa could ultimately twist the title race or decide it - Especially as their game comes straight after the supposed "title decider" at Old Trafford between United and Liverpool. I don't think that will indeed be the title decider - United have Manchester City, Arsenal, Villa, and Everton to get through who could all trouble United.

I would hope that people start to sit up and take notice at the great work Martin O'Neill has done at Villa Park - even when my local side Stoke managed to beat them early on in the season. Football is indeed a funny game.

As for Stoke, there are just 4 games of the remaining 15 games that arguably they can expect to lose: the games against Villa, Manchester City (given their talent), Arsenal and Everton. Every other game Stoke could conceivably nick a point, and if they are lucky maybe 2 points out of these 4 as well. A point per game would leave Stoke with a finish of 38 points - below the 40-point benchmark of recent seasons to stay up. Given 8 of these are home games, and Stoke have won over half of their home games this season, Stoke could win 4 of these games but it still leaves them short. Even winning all of their remaining home games would probably only just see Stoke stay up. Out of 12 away games, Stoke are the only team other than Fulham yet to win away, and Stoke have a poorer record: just 3 points out of a possible 36 in away games so far.

Given Stoke's record over the season, we can expect them to get close to the 40 point mark but they are going to need to pick up points away. I, along with many saw Stoke as whipping boys this season but they've outshone the god-awful Billy Davies/Paul Jewell's Derby side and the Sunderland sides (twice!) of recent times.

Whatever Stoke's outcome, they can be proud of themselves.Like with Villa it is too early to really know what their outcome will be. Crucially, if Stoke can win a couple of away games then they are right in the thick of it and it's game on.

It's the best football season I can remember.